Ten Solar Predictions for 2007

  1. Lot’s of M&A activity throughout the solar value chain.  Wafer-Cell-Module companies will vertically integrate — and integrators will merge.
  2. State incentives, primarily those in CA, will drive solar growth in the U.S.  East coast states, most likely NJ, will come back to life as their programs get rejuvenated.
  3. The U.S. government will wake up to solar in a big way — with more generous and sustained tax credits in 2008.
  4. Module companies will go back to selling, with market share as their primary goal.
  5. Module prices will decline by $1/watt, and price tiers will develop based on perceived product quality and company reputations.
  6. Third tier module companies will not be able to maintain profits after subtracting $1/watt from their top line — and will bail out.
  7. Thin film technologies will see slow and steady production ramp ups.
  8. Another severe gas crisis — as we had in the 70s — will spur demand for solar power and electric vehicles.
  9. “Carbon Neutral” will replace “Global Warming” as the environmental industry’s catch phrase.
  10. The solar silicon shortage will be replaced by the cosmetic surgery silicone shortage as new silicon plants come on line and Dow gets back into the implant business.