- Lot’s of M&A activity throughout the solar value chain. Wafer-Cell-Module companies will vertically integrate — and integrators will merge.
- State incentives, primarily those in CA, will drive solar growth in the U.S. East coast states, most likely NJ, will come back to life as their programs get rejuvenated.
- The U.S. government will wake up to solar in a big way — with more generous and sustained tax credits in 2008.
- Module companies will go back to selling, with market share as their primary goal.
- Module prices will decline by $1/watt, and price tiers will develop based on perceived product quality and company reputations.
- Third tier module companies will not be able to maintain profits after subtracting $1/watt from their top line — and will bail out.
- Thin film technologies will see slow and steady production ramp ups.
- Another severe gas crisis — as we had in the 70s — will spur demand for solar power and electric vehicles.
- “Carbon Neutral” will replace “Global Warming” as the environmental industry’s catch phrase.
- The solar silicon shortage will be replaced by the cosmetic surgery silicone shortage as new silicon plants come on line and Dow gets back into the implant business.
